วันจันทร์ที่ 30 กรกฎาคม พ.ศ. 2550
Welcome to global warming awareness 2007.
Welcome to global warming awareness 2007.
Well I accidently felt over this seo contest surfing the internet and on normal circumstances I would nerver participate in such at thing as the “global warming awareness 2007” contest, but by clicking around the sites in the contest, I decided that maybe this was right for me.
The thing is that the keywords, global warming, and awareness said something to me, and it hurts me to see some peoples reaction, to this contest and the keywords to it. I was shocked when I visited this site (I wont link to it ) globalwarming-awareness2007.isabloodycloaker dot com) This stupid moran have got this whole thing wrong, because I think that the global warming keywords are a totally great idea. Now you are probably thinking why is that. ?
The world seo championship has here by added a totally new thing to the contest by choosing these keywords, and that new thing is responsibility ! and I bellive that it is time that what all start to take responsibility to our actions in live, and to this contest. it is our responsibility to make our global warming awareness sites as informational as possible on this issue, so that when people surf the net, looking for global warming sites, and they enter one of the sites from this contest, they will get what they have been looking for, and not some crap site written by a totally idiot.
I am not a professor in global warming, but I will tell some of the facts I know, and besides that I will try to collect as much information on the awareness of the global warming, and post it here on this page.
A couple of weeks ago I went down to the gas station in my neigbor hood to rent a film, and on the dvd staples I saw a film called AN INCONVENIENT TRUTH.
I had seen some commercials in the televison for this film, and understood that this was a movie about global warming and on planet crisis. So I thought why not ? And rented it.
And I must admit that I was totally shocked when I saw this film. If you havent seen it I highly recommend that you do ASAP. The movie is made by former Vice President Al Gore, and I must admit that I have become a fan of this man, and his awareness of the global warming situation on our planet earth. The main reason why I was so impressed Al Gore, is that he takes responsibility for the global warming. As I look on Amercia they have always been the good guys (and always make it look that way) especially when it comes to the us government. But in this movie Al Gore speaks straight from his heart, and tells that America is the worst country, when it comes to creating global warming, and pollution in all kinds. And that is what I call taking responsibility, and if we all learn to do that everything will be way easier to manage.
I will be updating this site on a daily basis. If you are a professor or just a person who are aware of the global warming situation and feel that you would like to share something with other people do not hesitate to mail me my mail is elgynventegodt@hotmail.com you are also more than welcome to use the forum. All the best Michael
Global warming is a much disputed issue that can leave the average individual quite confused. Unfortunately, there are no straightforward answers. For those of us who are not scientists, it is easy to be overwhelmed by the contradictions. It is much more convenient to just give the whole thing up and enjoy the weather or not, as the case might be.
However, just because you are not a scientist does not mean that you must be misinformed or uninformed. There is a middle ground where you can get a reasonable perspective on global warming and global climate change.
Climate science is very complicated and the controversy surrounding it is only natural. It is in the nature of science to evolve and change. Through all the debate in climatology, a consensus is now beginning to emerge which accepts that our planet is experiencing the effects of global warming.
The following article gives a brief outline of the history of our planet, its current state, and what you may expect in the near future. The facts listed here are based in climatology.
Greenhouse Effect
Though this term is often tossed around as a problem, the fact is that the greenhouse effect is a natural aspect of the Earth's atmosphere and more than that it is a key component of the climate as we know it today. Left in its natural state ,the greenhouse effect would keep the average temperature at around 59 degrees Fahrenheit (15 degrees Celsius). Without the greenhouse effect, the Earth would probably not support the life we know as the temperature would be 0 degree Fahrenheit (18 degrees Celsius).
The term greenhouse effect comes because the effect is propagated through greenhouse gases with Carbon Dioxide (CO2) forming the biggest contributor. Greenhouse gases trap the heat that the planet receives from the sun ,thereby leading to a livable atmosphere and a stable climate. Carbon dioxide is produced through animal respiration. This mixes into the atmosphere and is absorbed by plants that use photosynthesis and release oxygen. The same oxygen is inhaled by animals and this cycle goes on in perpetuity.
The Human Contribution
Humanity has always relied on fuel of some sort but it is the beginning of the industrial revolution around 1750 that we started burning fossil fuels with utter disregard for consequences. Coal, oil, and natural gas are the popular forms of fossil fuels and all of them, when burned, release CO2 into the atmosphere. Besides CO2, other human activities release other greenhouse gases. Agriculture leads to methane and nitrous oxide excess while aerosol propellants produce CFCs (Chloroflourocarbons) that are directly damaging to the ozone layer. However, when viewed in terms of sheer volume nothing compares to excessive CO2 and its effect on the atmosphere.
At the beginning of the industrial revolution, CO2 had a concentration of 275 parts per million as a global average. Today, that same value stands at 350 parts per million, a staggering 30% increase that is increasing. The second half of the twentieth century has witnessed a further acceleration in this phenomenon.
Data from all over the world shows that the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere is steadily increasing as more and more countries are industrialized.
Global Temperature
Recording temperature at one place is quite easy but how does on figure out the global temperature?
There are temperature records from many locations all over the world that are more than a century old. As is to be expected, these records show a huge variation depending on where the data was recorded. However, between all the confusion there is still the fact that everywhere the temperature seems to have gone up by 1 degree Fahrenheit (or ½ degree Celsius) and this change is most precisely seen since the 2nd half of the 19th century. A 1 degree change may not sound like much but it has some huge effect on global climate.
However, there remains the problem of getting accurate data records from all over the world in order to arrive at a reasonably precise figure for global temperature. Some of the problems in doing this are as follow.
* The thermometer has undergone several changes and today it is far more accurate then it was a century and a half ago. So how reliable are the temperature recordings from back then?
* There is something known as an "urban heat island" effect. This basically involves land use and it is known that land use has an effect on local temperature. Cities are hotter than the surrounding countryside. This means that with urbanization a location might record higher temperatures that are not related to global warming. Locations for data recording change ,so their reliability becomes questionable.
* Most records are maintained in industrialized locations. This is known as a geographical bias.
These factors tend to confuse the whole global warming issue because you never know if the data is reliable or not.
This is why the 1 degree change is not taken from raw data but is adjusted to compensate for these factors.
Climate Models
Climatologists use CGMs (Computer Generated Models) in order to predict the change in global temperature based on an increase in greenhouse gases. The CGMs suggest an increase of 1 degree Celsius that is not so far from the actual increase reported but still double and hence a cause for worry. This discrepancy has been among the leading causes of controversy with global warming.
However, science is an evolving mechanism and newer climate models along with modern observations of changes to the Earth's environment have eliminated the reluctance of most climatologists towards global warming.
It is difficult to ignore the effects of global warming when there is clear evidence for rising sea levels, receding glaciers, migrating plants and animals, dying coral reefs, reduced temperature fluctuations, and unexpected and frequent precipitations. All of these events are being recorded all over the world to varying degrees.
Most climatologists are now of the opinion that we are indeed experiencing the ills of global warming.
The next obvious concern is the expected global climate change and its effect on the environment and on the future of humanity.
Politicians Who Make Big Political Announcements On Comedy Shows
John McCain announces for president on the Late Show With David Letterman.
Arnold Schwarzenegger announces for governor on The Tonight Show With Jay Leno.
John Edwards announces for president on the Daily Show with John Stewart.
That just leaves Al Gore announcing for president on The Weather Channel.
World View of Global Warming
The Arctic and Alaska
The Arctic is thawing very rapidly, documented by new reports from scientists and arctic natives. The Arctic Climate Impact Assessment was released in late 2004, and shows changes from the ice at the North Pole to animals and human settlements. More recent reports from Greenland show outlet glaciers moving meters per hour and rapidly thinning. The Arctic Ocean ice cap is shrinking in summer to the smallest it has ever been in modern measurements, and even winter cold has not been refreezing it as extensively as before. That sea ice is habitat for the polar bear. Declines in bear nutrition, birth weight and survival have moved the U.S. government (urged by three environmental groups) to propose the bear be named a species threatened with extinction.
Below and on linking pages, are reports on the latest science and warming effects across Alaska and parts of the Arctic. For more on Arctic natives, please see the Arctic page. Also see Glaciers for more on Greenland and Alaska glaciers.
Pushing the Boundaries of Life: Alaska
The listing of polar bears as threatened under the U.S. endangered species act will name global warming as the main threat, a first. The reduction of the permanent Arctic sea ice by 14 percent since the 1970s is causing not only feeding and breeding difficulties, but also drownings and apparent cannibalism among bears. The listing should be official by the end of 2007. For more information, see Center for Biological Diversity. Scientists are just beginning to see the effects of climate change on other Arctic wildlife. Caribou give birth at specific times and locations, making them susceptible to changes in weather and vegetation. Studies show that the tundra is now blooming slightly earlier and that it is affected by drier summers and heavier winter snow.
Biologist Gus Shaver at one of his experimental plots at Toolik Lake, Alaska, monitors increased birch growth due to experimental fertilization and global warming. Shaver says the results of his experiment suggest that warming eventually will promote the growth of birch at the expense of sedges, forbs, and other plants that caribou and other wildlife favor as food sources. During an initial 15-year study (1981-95, which included the warmest decade on record) the sedge Eriophorum decreased by 30 percent while birch biomass increased, even in control plots. In 2002 Shaver reports the growth of birch has changed the ecology of tundra in some plots by covering and killing moss with large amount of leaf litter.
The great loss of ice from the Arctic, which includes not only the polar sea ice cover but also thawing glaciers and tundra permafrost, has other major implications. One of the most important is that dark open water and tundra absorb much more solar heat than white ice and snow. This is a "feedback loop" that will make changes happen faster.
Another large effect in the Arctic is a freshening of the Arctic Ocean. In late 2002, geochemist Bruce Peterson of the Marine Biological Lab in Woods Hole, MA, and his collaborators in the US and Russia, showed that the major rivers of Siberia and Eurasia are discharging much more water now than in the 1930s. This not only meets the predictions of an effect of climate change, but indicates the scale of change affecting the Arctic.
In late 2002, geochemist Bruce Peterson of the Marine Biological Lab in Woods Hole, MA, and his collaborators in the US and Russia, showed that the major rivers of Siberia and Eurasia are discharging much more water now than in the 1930s. This not only meets the predictions of an effect of climate change, but indicates the scale of another source of added fresh water into the Arctic.
So what is happening to all this fresh water from increased river flow, melting glaciers and shrinking sea ice? It mixes into the Arctic Ocean and the less salty Arctic water flows south around Greenland, to the source of some of the greatest ocean currents.
The interplay of ocean currents in the North Atlantic is very important to climate. Here, between Labrador and Scandinavia, the Gulf Stream brings a huge flow of water from the south, helping warm Europe as it gives up its heat. This water sinks as it cools, to flow back south again in the deep Atlantic. This plunging down of millions of tons of water per second helps propel what has been termed the Great Ocean Conveyor, a system of huge currents transferring heat throughout all oceans and influencing climate.
One key to this system is that the Gulf Stream water becomes more dense as it gives up heat, and it sinks. But the added fresher water coming down from the Arctic is much less dense, and floats on top of the North Atlantic.
Is there enough new fresher water from the Arctic to prevent the Gulf Stream water from sinking to help drive the conveyor of currents? According to recent studies by Dr. Ruth Curry and colleages at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute, there is more fresher water in the area than ever measured before. Already sinking rates in some locations are 20 percent less than in the 1970s.
The northern waters are getting fresher while the southern waters (near equator) are increasing in salinity. Curry says this indicates a change in the climate with more precipitation and ice melt in the north and much stronger evaporation in the south. In other words: "Global warming."
Scientists are concerned that the point at which the current Conveyor does begin to slow may be near. Other current research shows the Gulf Stream is not the prime moderator of European temperature (westerly winds play a larger role). Yet climate in Europe and NE North America could chill if the ocean current slows dramatically. This is the jumping off point for a recent Pentagon planning report about possible international unrest caused by climate change, and for the movie "The Day After Tommorow." Scientists say disruptive change is coming -- but much more slowly than depicted in these scenarios.
More Climate Change in Alaska 2 >>
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Use of photographs in any manner, in part or whole, without permission is prohibited by US copyright law. These photographs are registered with the US Copyright Office and are not in the Public Domain.
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Global warming ready
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Global warming may have permanently damaged reefs
The effects of global warming upon coral reefs have been more devastating than previously believed, according to the first report to show the long-term impact of rising temperatures on fish and invertebrate life.
According to a 50,000 square metre study of 21 sites on the inner islands of the Seychelles undertaken in 1994 and 2005, large areas of coral reef and the organisms that live there, may have been permanently lost due to global warming.
The study, which was undertaken by an international team of biologists, is the first to show the long-term effects of the 1998 heatwave which caused sea temperatures in the Indian Ocean to rise so high that they killed more than 90% of the corals in the inner Seychelles.
Collapsing reefs
Their paper in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences says that while the 90% loss of coral cover was dramatic enough in itself, the long-term prospects are more bleak and many reefs have been unable to recover and many have collapsed into piles of algae-covered rubble.The study says that the collapse of reefs, which are in part held together by corals, has led to a drop in the amount of food available and shelter from predators, which has had a knock-on effect to the other reef organisms.
The effects of global warming have not just been damaging corals, either. Four fish species, including two labrid wrasses, a Butterflyfish and a damsel are already believed to be extinct in the area, while others have dropped to critically low levels.
Lead author, Nick Graham of Newcastle University's School of Marine Science and Technology said: "Reefs can sometimes recover after disturbances, but we have shown that after severe bleaching events, collapse in the physical structure of the reef results in profound impacts on other organisms in the ecosystem and greatly impedes the likelihood of recovery.
"Unfortunately it may be too late to save many of these reefs but this research shows the importance of countries tackling greenhouse gas emissions and trying to reduce global warming and its effect on some of the world's finest and most diverse wildlife."
In America, Global Warming Doesn't Even Register.
Click on the amazing graph from yesterday's New York Times article on American opinion about global warming.(below the fold) It doesn't even register as a serious issue. Even when asked about environmental issues, it rates near the bottom, above acid rain and below the ozone hole. We think that Green is going mainstream in America as we read our Vanity Fair, Elle, Time and even Wallpaper this month, but we may be wrong. We are not even on the radar.
From the Times article: "I wish I were more optimistic of our ability to get a broad slice of the public to understand this and be motivated to act," said David G. Hawkins, who directs the climate program at the Natural Resources Defense Council, a private group. In an e-mail message, he wrote: "We are sensory organisms; we understand diesel soot because we can smell it and see it. Getting global warming is too much of an intellectual process. Perhaps pictures of drowning polar bears (which we are trying to find) will move people but even there, people will need to believe that those drownings are due to our failure to build cleaner power plants and cars." ::New York Times
Last night's TV: The Great Global Warming Swindle
The Great Global Warming Swindle on Channel 4.
"We're heretics! I'm a heretic. The makers of this programme are heretics." Nigel Calder is explaining how the world sees scientists who deny global warming. Channel 4's The Great Global Warming Swindle made one interesting point - that scientists are not unanimous in their assessment of the connection between global warming and CO2. Most say the second causes the first; a few say the first causes the second. Interesting, huh? Academics in not-all-thinking-exactly-the-same-thing shock. The amazing thing about global warming is not that someone from Winnipeg University disagrees (if you've ever been to Winnipeg, you will know what it means to be forced by your academic qualifications to live there); it's how many people don't disagree.
Sorry, I am just rolling over and handing the refuseniks a piece of their most powerful weaponry - when everyone agrees, why, that's like when we thought the world was flat! Only a few brave voices stood up, and they were ridiculed! I actually had this argument on the Daily Politics with Peter Hitchens. "You can't seriously be contending," said I, "that just because all scientists say you're talking rubbish, that de facto turns you into the brave, lone voice of truth?" (I am buffing my prose a bit, I admit.) "That's the trouble with you Guardian journalists! You only talk to each other!" he retorted.
Calder, incidentally, is billed as the "ex-editor of the New Scientist"; to clarify for a second what they mean by "ex", he was the editor of a non-peer-reviewed journal that, under his relatively short tenure beginning 1962, was five years old. That's like accepting the ex-editor of a student fanzine as a leading authority on Mahler's experiments with harmonic dissonance. Here are the other core arguments against global warming: one, that the earth's temperature is always changing, and we had a mini-ice-age only a couple of hundred years ago; two, that the environmental lobby is just trying to scam the developing world out of developing, by forcing it to use solar power; three - this is a new one on me, I have to admit - that a new breed of "environmental journalists" has such a vested interest in there being an "environmental" case to answer that they effectively bully editors into printing stories that aren't true (they definitely have a point, here - a cancer journalist of my acquaintance recently ripped up the cure for cancer and flushed it down the toilet, because she worried that she might have to move into virus-reporting, and one's 30s simply isn't the time to retrain).
I know Channel 4 has a new remit of its own devising, to make trouble and stir up hornets' nests and all that, but what this amounts to is not mischievous subversion, it's just more of that age-old Fox News formula: take a surprising fact that might make people think, but won't make a programme on its own; gather together some bouncy commentators, stick a snooty voice over the top, create a sense of conflict without properly interrogating the positions taken within it, and aah, Bisto!, you have successfully brought to the world the smell of confusion.
What's a layman to make of all this? Oh me oh my, I'm too confused, I can't make anything of it! I'm just gonna take me a lovely holiday in the sun instead, and to heck with the environmental consequences which many leading people from Winnipeg have already told me aren't true. It's incredibly tacky, global warming aside, this cheap-shot attitude to what can be presented as truth. You can feel its insincerity, even before some frothy, patronising "scientist" bounces on to the screen to say: "If you had x-ray eyes, what appears as a nice yellow ball would appear as a raging tiger!" (That is Calder again. Talking about the sun.)
"You can't seriously be saying that the leftwing doesn't have its own propaganda," a young woman pertinently challenged Al Franken in BBC4's Storyville: Al Franken - God Spoke. I expected him to be annoying, but in fact he responded rather charmingly. She was pretty, I guess. Good God, though, it gave you a horrible insight into what it means to be a polemicist in America. Al Franken, if you remember, wrote Lies and the Lying Liars who Tell Them, whose subtitle - a Fair and Balanced look at the Right - gave the abovementioned Fox News cause to sue him. "Fair" and "balanced" are their words, apparently. Franken is not without his faults but the man has cojones. He takes on Ann Coulter. Nobody in their right mind would do that. Smarting, she emerged from the debate and a weeny sycophant ran over: "He is, like, totally obsessed by you! Did you hear what he said about your hair!" Coulter, fresh from defeat, stuck out her chin while her ego recharged.
It must be like playing Grand Theft Auto, keeping these people maintained. Storyville rocks. It should get all the licence-fee money.
‘Vertical Farm’ Skyscrapers Could Help Fight Global Warming: Professor Believes
A vision straight out of ‘Futurama’ gives birth to a Columbia professor’s belief that it is by converting the skyscrapers into crop farms, global warming can be reduced, making New York cleaner.
Here’s how it might work –
Dr. Dickson Despommier, a professor of environmental sciences and microbiology at Columbia University thinks that “vertical farm” skyscrapers could help fight global warming.
The concept is like, for example, a cluster of 30-story towers on Governors Island or in Hudson Yards produces fruits, vegetables, and grains and at the same time it also generates clean energy and purifies wastewater.
According to Despommier, it is roughly 150 such buildings, which are capable of feeding the entire New York city for a year. He believes that by using current green building systems, a vertical farm can be made self-sustaining. It can, at the same time, produce a net output of both clean water and energy.
The vertical-farming concept could take a working group of agricultural economists, architects, engineers, agronomists, and urban planners five to ten years to figure out — how high-tech agricultural practices and the latest sustainable building technology can be married successfully and sustainably.
It is only by allowing Earth’s significant portions of farmland to return to forest, climate and weather patterns can be stabilized. It is only by allowing forests to regrow in place where crops are now cultivated, carbon dioxide reduction in the atmosphere is possible, he believes.
BIG BANG
Maybe the paradigm of the big bang is correct, but maybe it isn�t. For this piece I am going to assume that it is a valid beginning for the universe. With that explanation, I give you my version of the �Big Bang�, which is at least an attempt at logic. The illogical part is the acceptance of a mysterious singularity lacking any explanation of where it came from or what could have destabilized it. Providing that the paradigm of the �big bang� is correct, it would be logical to assume that once matter becomes that compacted, it starts to transform into energy, thus loosing mass, and less mass equals lower gravity. Then we have set the stage for the great expansion. This is just my musings, but there probably is a logical explanation for the destabilization of the singularity.
Once you get past that bit of nonsense, then I present my version of what happened from the time of the great expansion until we have galaxies. Enjoy! :-)
Big Bang According to Robert
Whatever it was, according to the theoreticians, it wasn�t very big. Somewhere in time, the thing couldn�t remain in the form it was in, so it started expanding. (The big bang.) The scholars are vague about what caused the instability; all we can surmise is that it started expanding fast enough to be classified as a bang.
At this point, it is fair to point out that the singularity as the big bang theory proposes, contains the total universe. All of the matter of the universe, and according to some, space itself was contained in this single entity. What is also very visible and important about the singularity is that it is not able to maintain itself in this state. Thus it is an unstable entity. Relate this to the theory of the black holes speculated by scholars, that gravity is so strong that light cannot escape. Matter is compressed to the point that molecules no longer exist, just primary elements of molecules with no respect for the normal space between these basic elements. What the �big bang� theory tells us, is that no amount of matter so compressed is stable. If a black hole were to keep adding matter to itself, there is no point at any stage of the matter accretion that would be stable. Think about it, gravity cannot be stronger than with a body containing all the matter of the universe. It is a maximum statement for gravity, and yet it still could not hold the singularity together. Therefore gravity cannot be the irresistible force that it is made out to be. Black holes may exist, but they cannot be stable. Gravity by any explanation, even to the point of holding the entire universe, cannot be absolute. The �big bang� settles the question absolutely. We pick up this narrative with the expansion of the singularity.
Did I say expansion? That�s what we are told. Whenever you look at a stick of dynamite exploding using a high-speed camera, that�s what you observe; expansion of the reaction. It is necessary to grasp this concept, as opposed to an instantaneous blast.
Lets call the expanding entity something, because describing the thing we are talking about whenever we talk about it, isn�t very efficient. For lack of a better term, I�ll call it the universe.
Remember our observation is happening fast enough so that we can see what is happening. The only constraint on the universe now is the weakening (But still strong) gravity of its former self. The expansion of the universe is causing it to break up. The pieces are different sizes, some large and some small. Even these fragments are still expanding, and fragmenting further. Still smaller fragments of these fragments are taking off in all directions. Try and picture a fireworks display where the fireworks are blasted into the sky, and then in turn, they explode in the air with fireballs going off in all directions. This is what is happening to our universe fragments. Relative to each other, the fragments and sub-fragments are going every which-a-way, but taken as a whole, the whole batch is moving away from the initial point of expansion.
That�s pretty much the big picture, but there was a lot going on and now we will back the tape up for another view of the universe at the time of the great expansion. The universe as we know it was compressed into a very small body. Gravity was unimaginably great surrounding the universe at this time. It was probably the force that held everything together. (Although it is not a certainty, but it is one of those things that we will assume for this article.) Visualizations are difficult here but try to mentally imagine a piece of dry ice in a pressure cylinder. Reduce the pressure to 1 atmosphere (The same pressure we live in normally) you will observe the dry ice giving off a haze that is drifting away. Now increase the pressure, as the pressure increases you will reach a point where the dry ice is stable and no longer giving off gas. This is the predicament of the universe fragments, as they raced away during the expansion. The further away they traveled from each other, the less the force (gravity) that held them together. These fragments of very dense material began acting like the dry ice at atmospheric pressure. They were fizzing and fragmenting further. And, with every release of sub fragments, the gravity produced by these smaller chunks of material got smaller.
There are still fragments of the great expansion in existence. Every galaxy still has, or once had, one at its core. These fizzing, pin wheeling, fragments disbursed the elementary particles that created the stars that make up each galaxy. Spewing out the elementary particles to coalesce into stars that in turn through fusion create the larger atoms that we are familiar with.
Currently, physicists take the opposite view about the heavy masses at the center of the galaxies. They contend that the galaxy centers are accreting mass. This theory does nothing to explain what happened to the concentrated mass that started the great expansion. What forces would have concentrated the matter into the billions of galaxies? Just think about the scenario of the original singularity that expanded to form the universe. Listening to the explanation of the physicists, you would have to believe that primary particles were distributed evenly during the expansion, and somehow they were being lumped into galaxies as the universe was expanding. No mention is made of the fragmentation of the original mass. What happened to the original fragments and sub-fragments?
There is also evidence of galaxy collisions. But I submit if you shoot a shotgun, the pellets are on an expanding trajectory, but not on a collision course with one another. A practical explanation for the collisions is the one given above where the larger fragments are further fragmenting into all directions creating a condition that could foster collisions. These fragmenting pieces accelerated away from the original expansion point at a high rate of speed, so that any backwards fragmenting would not be of sufficient speed to actually travel backwards, relative to the direction away from the original point of expansion.
After the larger fragments have degraded into masses of a size that can no longer support fragmentation, they become just fizzlers, spewing out elementary particles, similar to an Alka-Seltzer in a glass of water. The mass of these pieces cannot be overstated, but being naturally unstable, particles are escaping. So at present, these fragments of the singularity are still spewing their volume and birthing stars.
The escaping particles form hydrogen in great quantities and as this gas accumulates, stars are formed. Some of these stars are pretty massive and are short lived in terms of star life. They die like all stars, but not before fusing a lot of elements and expelling a lot of unused hydrogen from its halo. The really massive stars may collapse into a super dense matter called a black hole that will return, through its radiation and instability, primary particles to once again escape and form hydrogen. A lot of this used star material is accelerated in a direction away from the galaxy center where it combines with ejected material from other dying stars to form other stars. Some of the heavier ejected, fusion created, material forms material disks around these stars. This material is heavier now, born of the fusion process, and will collect together to form planets. The process eventually builds the star disk of a galaxy. (Given enough time.) The size of the galaxy disk is an indicator of how large the initial fragment was that created the galaxy. Left alone, a galaxy will assume the classic spiral shape, but these shapes can vary with near misses and collisions with other galaxies.
I now conclude this narrative. Hopefully, you enjoyed it as much as I enjoyed writing it.
Robert Gross
COMMENTS Your Feedback is Important to Us
Eating Crow: Nobody likes having to write a retraction, but a rewrite is in order to correct my first article about 'Global Warming'. Life, if nothing else, is a learning experience. My assumptions about the effects of CO2 on our climate were in error. Like most people I accepted as 'common knowledge' that man was wrecking the ecology and causing the global catastrophe of 'Global Warming'. Chief among the cause was our use of fossil fuels, and their subsequent discharge of CO2. Those conclusions were premature, and I now want to share with you additional findings that I thought were compelling enough to do a rewrite of my previous article.
Considering Mars: Mars stands out like a glittering jewel as an example of why we should not get too excited about CO2 as causing the Earth to warm up. The atmosphere of Mars is 95% CO2. When it snows on Mars, the snow is CO2. By comparison, the earth only has 00.06% CO2 in it's atmosphere. If CO2 was the culprit that warms up a planet, wouldn't you think Mars would be warm and toasty by now? Mars is factually not warm, and CO2 is about the only gas in it's atmosphere.
Considering Venus: Venus is HOT. A Google search about Venus will yield only one result about the high temperature of Venus; A runaway Greenhouse effect. Well, because so many say so, it must be so - right? Believe me, I am not trying to say that there is no greenhouse on Venus or Earth for that matter, but there needs to be a little perspective about Venus. First of the noteworthy facts about Venus is that; It takes approximately 243 earth days for Venus to rotate once. The Venus day is actually longer than its solar year which takes 224.7 Earth days. Venus is, in reality, baking on one side and cooling on the other. Compare that to Earth which only faces the Sun 12 hours of each day. Earth probably wouldn't fare too well either if most of the year, it was facing the Sun with no relief. It is on the side away from the Sun where most of the cooling and condensation takes place. It is the condensed vapors that make up the cloud shroud that we see whenever we look up at Venus after dark. The Gases are shrinking and condensing on the cool side, and expanding on the side facing the Sun. The expanding and contracting of these gases generates the winds that cause the global circulation on Venus. The winds circulating in Venus's atmosphere transport enormous amounts of energy around to the side away from the Sun. But because of the high CO2 content of the Venusian atmosphere, advocates of the CO2 warming theory, declare Venus as an example of Greenhouse Heating. In the process, they disregard all of the other processes going on. If Venus wasn't hot, it would not be heralded as having a runaway greenhouse. You'll notice how they ignore Mars.
Contrary to Popular Belief: The Sun is the main engine of global or any other type of warming. Yes there is an increase in atmospheric CO2 whenever there is an increase in global temperature. But just like sweating is caused by heat, so too is more CO2 released whenever the Earth's temperature increases. The CO2 increase is a result of the Earth getting warmer rather than the cause of it.
Fun Facts: The Oceans are the largest source of atmospheric CO2 . There are over 1000 (That's Thousand) sub-sea volcanoes. These volcanoes are doing one major thing that influences our climate. They are helping to heat the oceans and adding a lot of CO2 to be absorbed by the oceans. The warmer water gives up a lot of CO2 to the atmosphere. It is clear that the ocean waters have to get warmer first before that process happens. It is not the reverse, as is claimed, with the CO2 causing the oceans temperature to rise.
Listening to the Ice: The study of the ice-cores that scientist have accumulated all tell the same story. The rise in CO2 always came after the increase of global temperature. Again, demonstrating that CO2 is a result and not a cause of global warming.
Watching the Sun: Another interesting study is about 'Sunspot' activity. This web site details the coincidences of the global temperature changes with sunspot activity. http://www2.sunysuffolk.edu/mandias/lia/possible_causes.html I am sure that you will appreciate how they track together. I highly recommend that you read about this fascinating study.
Man may or may not be able to affect what is happening: Science should be able to confront any global warming without the politicizing or hyping of information that isn't truthful. I urge you to click on this link and read some of the information that is not being distributed through the liberal media. http://www.nov55.com/index.html
A Word About the 'Green Credits': In a recent publicized event, Al Gore was chastised for using so much energy, whether by flying around in a private jet, or having such a high usage of electricity for his large mansion. All the while, Al Gore is telling everyone else to cut back on energy use. This would only be a tempest in a teapot if it hadn't been communicated that he was purchasing Carbon Offsets for his extravaganze to maintain a carbon neutral footprint. First, purchasing offsets (Green Credits) doesn't prevent his rather large consumption of energy. Second, the offsets he was purchasing came from a company that he founded. So essentially, he was paying himself for the offsets. The idea of trading in these "offsets" is a scam of the first order. Under this reality, it puts a real hardship on third world countries that are trying to raise their standard of living. Does any one honestly think that those people wouldn't like to have air-conditioning? How about modernizing their farms with tractors and other conveniences? Should they not be able to use the most abundant energy forms on Earth like the rest of the world does? Already, the "civilized world" denies them the use of DDT. But thats a whole other subject.
This Rewrite about Global Warming: I rewrote my 'Global Warming' article to try and correct a mistake. However, I will leave the old article in place. But consider it rebuked in the highest sense, especially the part that decries CO2 as the cause for Global Warming.
If Your Internet Hookup is Beefy Enough, Watch the 1.3 hour video made up entirely of scientist who are trying to get the word out about how Humans are not the cause of the Earths temperature increase. This is a fascinating, factual video that literally rips to shreds the idea of CO2 causing global warming. This link will take you to the video, but be warned it is pretty big, so download it in segments to avoid any problems with your ISP.
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-4520665474899458831
Robert Gross
COMMENTS Your Feedback is Important to Us
a) Do I have window box planters?
b) Do I have enough houseplants to neutralize emissions from the humans and animals that live there?
c) Have I planted enough trees in the yard to compensate for the area of ground taken by the house?
e) Have I encouraged my state to plant trees along the highways and by-ways?
f) Is my city allowing construction of new buildings without requiring 'carbon neutrality'?
Global Warming
Many scientists believe that deforestation is causing the earth to become warmer. This is because of what is called the greenhouse effect. The greenhouse effect works like this: The sun's rays pass down through the atmosphere and warm the surface of the earth. The surface throws some of the heat back toward space. However, much of that heat does not escape into space. Gases in the atmosphere called greenhouse gases trap it. This happens the same way a glass garden greenhouse traps heat to grow plants in the winter. The main greenhouse gases are carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs).
People have been putting more and more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, especially in the past hundred years. Many scientists believe this increase in greenhouse gases will slowly cause the earth to become warmer. This is called global warming. Many scientists also believe that global warming could cause the polar ice caps to melt. This may cause flooding of low-lying coastal lands. A rise in temperature could be enough to endanger the crops we need for food. It could also dry up the lakes and rivers in some areas that provide water to crops, towns and cities.
Deforestation is a major cause of carbon dioxide being released into the atmosphere. Trees and other plants in the forests absorb carbon dioxide to make food. As forests are destroyed, fewer trees are available to absorb carbon dioxide. Also, people often burn the trees when clearing land. This burning releases large quantities of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. For the same reasons, the cutting and burning of wood for curing tobacco adds to the greenhouse effect.
The smoke from cigarettes also contains greenhouse gases. Cigarette smoke contains carbon dioxide and methane. Smoking worldwide releases about 2.6 billion kilograms of carbon dioxide in the air every year. It also releases about 5.2 billion kilograms of methane every year. Tobacco growing, curing, and smoking all add to the greenhouse effect and global warming.
วันอาทิตย์ที่ 29 กรกฎาคม พ.ศ. 2550
ETV's "Global Warming: The Signs and The Science" Examines the Newest Evidence Surrounding Climate Change on Planet Earth
International recording artist Alanis Morissette hosts and narrates this cautionary and empowering look at the forces of climate change filmed in the US, Asia and South America. A co-production of ETV and Stonehaven Productions, and underwritten by Toyota with additional funding provided by Swiss Re, this compelling and accessible program brings the reality of climate change to life and offers viewers inspiring examples of people making a difference in their own communities.
The program features numerous science experts, who review a growing body of evidence of the grave consequences of a changing climate, and explores how individuals, communities and organizations across America are creating new approaches to safeguard future generations.It also looks at evidence that human activities are provoking an unprecedented era of atmospheric warming and climatic events : more drought, wildfires and flooding, polar melting, more powerful storms and more variable weather. Tropical diseases are moving north, childhood respiratory illnesses are skyrocketing, and in the last three decades more than 30 diseases new to science have emerged. Global Warming: The Signs and the Science takes viewers across America to meet people from every walk of life: Nebraska farmers, Colorado cattle ranchers, small-town doctors, Louisiana oilmen, Maryland school kids, New Hampshire townsfolk, Detroit inner-city teenagers, New York City bike couriers, and Florida policemen. Their words and stories uncover both the reality of climate change and their responses to its various manifestations.
As people across the USA and around the world start to face their vulnerability to a changing climate, many have decided to do something. They are determined to be part of a solution, and have launched all kinds of initiatives aimed at reducing the impacts of climate change. Is it possible to avert disaster? Can a paradigm of progress built on fossil fuels be altered significantly in time? Will changing the way things are done mean economic ruin, or new opportunities? These are some of the questions the show poses.
ETV Vice President of National Programming Polly Kosko, who also serves as co-executive producer of the program, expressed a belief that “PBS is the right venue for this important and enlightening program because it presents both the challenges we face and a variety of positive things people can do to make a difference.”
ETV also gives students from across the state a chance to voice their opinions and concerns about global warming on Open Lines, a live program that airs Tuesday, Nov. 1 at 7 p.m. Students from around the state are invited to join the discussion by calling 1-800-763-ETV1.
Fish Or Cut Bait
The "Kyoto Protocol" (Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) went into effect in February. Fortunately, the United States did not ratify, despite the best efforts of Al Gore and his ilk (I will not refer to them as "tree huggers" because the true supporters of the Kyoto Protocol are more anti-technology than they are pro-environment.). The intent of the Protocol is to force the United States and other "developed countries" into drastically reducing their carbon dioxide emissions, most of which originate in the combustion of fossil fuels, such as coal and oil. However, the treaty does not encourage its signatories to replace coal- and oil-fired power plants with nuclear power plants, which is the only currently viable method for generating base load electricity without increasing carbon dioxide emissions. Instead, the Protocol encourages using "green power," such as wind, biomass, solar, and geothermal sources, which are already heavily subsidized by governments throughout the world.
Before Global WarmingPhoto by Bob Ciminel
The Kyoto Protocol is clearly a case of letting foxes into the henhouse. The authors and supporters of the Protocol are the same people who oppose both nuclear and fossil power plants, and want to go full speed ahead replacing them all with green power. I think, in the end, they will be successful in convincing the developed countries that the benefits of switching to non-polluting energy production are worth the additional expense. I don't believe it will happen in my lifetime, but it will happen, and that will be good for my great-grandchildren. Where I totally disagree with doomsday proponents is their insistence that the world is on the path to creating a major global climate change if its inhabitants continue emitting mega-tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. I take an opposite approach; I believe there actually are some upsides to global warming. Let me explain.
As I understand it, the great forests that formed the world's coal beds during the Carboniferous Era existed because there were large amounts of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, primarily from the millions of volcanoes created as the earth out-gassed and solidified. The carbon dioxide trapped both solar and geothermal heat, creating the greenhouse effect we worry so much about today. I view the whole carbon cycle as synergy in action. Prehistoric plants turned carbon dioxide gas into carbon, which eventually metamorphosed into coal. We burn the coal, creating carbon dioxide gas that plants turn back into carbon through photosynthesis. This cycle seems to have worked well throughout the Earth's history, so why are we intent on trying to alter what appears to be a very efficient process? If we allow the carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere to rise, we will raise the earth's average temperature and humidity. Plants love high temperatures and high humidity. What's the problem here? The problem is man never leaves well enough alone.
The carbon dioxide-carbon-carbon dioxide cycle is what put my former home town of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania at the center of the Industrial Revolution in America. Those huge prehistoric forests of carbon-producing flora became the world famous Pittsburgh coal seam, a 15,000-square mile, eight-foot thick square mile natural resource containing over 53 billion tons of bituminous coal. Even at the mid-nineteenth century price of five cents a bushel, that coal was worth 75 billion dollars, more valuable than all of the gold produced in California during the 1849 to 1864 Gold Rush. William Penn and his family purchased the 8,600,000 acres of land sitting atop the Pittsburgh Seam for $10,000. In comparison, that was probably a better deal than the $24 the Dutch paid for New York City.
After Global WarmingPhoto by Bob Ciminel
That prehistoric first round of global warming created conditions that allowed my grandfathers to emigrate from Italy and work as coal miners digging their way under the rolling hills of southwestern Pennsylvania to extract the Pittsburgh Seam for 50 cents a ton in the early 1900s. I'm here today because of global warming. If we interfere with the next cycle of climate change, who knows how it will affect those generations yet to be born.
Sure, there will be a downside if the Earth heats up. The polar ice caps will melt and sea level will rise. However, even that has intrinsic benefits only a Georgia Cracker can appreciate. If the ice caps melt, the salinity of the Atlantic Ocean will decrease, allowing our hybrid striped bass to migrate from our fresh water lakes into the littoral regions along the coast. With sea level 300 feet higher, the beach will be at the Fall Line where the Piedmont Plateau and the Atlantic Coastal Plain meet. Augusta and Macon, Georgia will become seaside resorts. We could be at the beach in two hours!
Bob Ciminel lives in Roswell, Georgia, and works for the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations. Bob is also a conductor on the Blue Ridge Scenic Railway.
Global Warming: Causes and Effects
Definition: Global warming is the heating of the earth's temperatures and the cause of more natural disasters like:
- Stronger hurricanes.
- More wild fires.
- More droughts.
- More floods.
- Stronger storms.
-Glacier melting.
-Tsunami’s happening more often.
Some effects global warming would cause are:
- Heat waves and periods of unusual warm weather.
- Ocean warming and sea level rise and coastal flooding.
- Glacier melting.
- Artic and Antarctic warming.
- Spreading diseases.
- Earlier spring arrival.
- Plant an animal range shifts and population changes.
- Coral reef bleaching.
- Downpours, heavy snowfalls, and flooding.
- Droughts and fires.
- Stronger hurricanes
Some activities that cause global warming:
- Carbon Dioxide (CO2) and Methane (CH4) released into the atmosphere.
- Solar activity.
- Volcanic emissions.
- Orbital forcing.
Explanation:
The heat from the sun's rays travels to Earth. Once they are in the atmosphere it is hard for them to escape since the Carbon Dioxide and Methane trap the heat.
All this disasters listed above are going to be consequences of global warming; It is terrible that these things occur, seeing as they will bring more natural disasters. Hurricanes, tornados, and tsunamis are some of them.
Climate changes are the most harmful effects of global warming, because these are projected every where globally. This includes slowing the circulisation of the currents in the sea, the melting’s of icebergs and ice sheets.
Scientist have predicted many things for global warming, some of this thing for human life and environmental are numerous and varied. There are lots of effects but the most abundant one is the increasing temperature globally. Other changes that are mostly talked about in present day are these effects are raising seas, extreme weather. Some of these extreme weather changes are stronger hurricanes, bigger and more tornadoes, bigger storms, and tsunamis are happening more often. An example of a hurricane caused by global warming is Hurricane Katrina.
Cows and Their Effect on Global Warming
Did you know that cows are a cause of global warming? When a cow farts they fart methane. Methane is gas that is making our atmosphere thicker. When the atmosphere gets thicker the sun rays that are hitting the earth can’t get back out through the atmosphere. When the sun rays can't get out of the earth's atmosphere they are heating the earth. The picture below shows how the earth is heating at the poles and cooling at the equator. The earth’s average temp is still 5 degrees Celsius.
<-- A photo of how the temperature will rise by 2060
Personal Views:
I feel that Global Warming is a major issue that needs to be dealt with immediately. As seen in the explanation and causes and effects above, it is very dangerous and can almost kill the whole world soon. We must strive to bring the world together to solve this problem by creating other means by which we can run our day-to-day lives without bringing such major destruction upon us, I sincerely hope that the project our group will do will open the eyes of everyone, and some solutions will be found.
Poems
Hey this is Josh's Poem. Its not that good so leave comments to tell me how to improve it n what you think of it. I also havent thought of a title so if u could help that would be great. Thx.
It’s getting hotter
Day by day
Like the furnace of a potter
Hardening his clay
Heat trapped in our atmosphere
By the gases we release
Up until the exosphere
The heat, it does increase
Melts glaciers
Like a crying widow
Rises seas and rivers
And floods many a meadow
Causes stronger hurricanes
Devastating the lives of many
Crashing large aeroplanes
Damages costing much more than a penny
Causes more natural disasters such as
Droughts, storms and fires
Predicted to kill many, the educated says
Carrying out an evil mans desires
All this happens because of gasses we release
Carbon dioxide and methane, the most common culprits
Except for cow farts that we cannot cease
A trait of bovine habits
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Hello viewers! This is Sai's poem, please read and comment away!
We Had to do Something
Watch the blooming
Of a newly born rosebud
Gently, every petal in her own shyness
With caressing dewdrops
Yet prickly thorns.
She grows and never stops growing
What used to be a
Baby bud
Grew up to be a majestic
Rose
Auburn in color
I will not whither
I will not shiver
For what used to be my home
I will be here forever.
And so she did
That blessed plant
Surviving till her own
Did kill
Why did she ever want to live?
I will not whither
I will not shiver
For what used to be my home
I will be here forever.
The Earth was shrouded by the seas
The smoke rose with gentle ease
All the comforts man ever wanted
He got.
Air conditioners
Refrigerators
TVs
Now the delicate flower
Lies buried
Not in a grave
But in her home
Mother Earth
Her will to live
Just died
As did she.
The Truth About Global Warming
First, is everyone really convinced that the globe is getting warmer? I went to the web site of The Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine and took a look at some of the literature. It seems there are quite a few scientists who disagree with the theory that the planet is getting warmer. There’s a petition on the site with something like 17,000 electronic signatures. I took a look at the list. Almost all of the signers had a PhD after their names. Why should I NOT believe these 17,000 scientists and believe the ones that say Global Warming is real?
Second, assuming that the planet is really warming up, will it really cause any problems? I mean, how much damage could a degree or two cause? I read a few articles on Global Warming, and it seems that over the past 100 years the planet has warmed up “about a degree”. A bit more research turned up a more exact figure of 0.6 degrees. Is that really a lot? From what I understand not too long ago the planet went through a warm period called “The Medieval Climate Optimum” followed by a cool period called “The Little Ice Age”. During these periods the average temperature rose about 0.4 degrees, then fell a little over 0.8 degrees. And what was the result of these wild temperature swings? Nothing at all. Grapes were grown farther north during the warm spell, and winters were a little colder during the cold spell. Where were all the catastrophes that such a change should have caused? There were none. Why should I believe that there will be problems now?
Also, what about this “Kyoto Protocol” thing? Have you actually read it? Are you sure? I find that hard to believe. How can you possibly think this thing will do anything to reduce greenhouse gasses? There’s a clause in it that allows rich countries that produce too much greenhouse gasses (i.e. the United States) to “buy” greenhouse gas production credits from poor countries that don’t use all theirs (i.e. Lower Slobovia). So we end up producing as much or more gasses as before, while paying large sums of money to poor countries for what is essentially nothing. And this is a good thing?
And finally, how much money was spent preparing for Y2K? Billions? How much of that was necessary? Probably not a thousandth of that. Now, how much money is spent on global warming research? About $2 billion a year. Why? Because of the current hysteria. If you were getting a piece of that pie, wouldn’t you overstate the dangers a little bit to insure you’d get your slice?
Global Warming and the Ocean
The Earth's climate seems stable in respect to humankind's limited length of historical knowledge, but in reality, it is an ever-changing system. Climate change has been occurring since the Earth began, passing through long periods of fluctuating temperatures.
Climatologists refer to the historical record, which goes back to the mid-nineteenth century, to study recent shifts in climate. This record of temperature measurements indicates that since 1860, the mean (average) annual surface temperature of the Earth has risen by about 0.5 Celsius degrees (0.9 Fahrenheit degrees). This finding supports the theory that the Earth is presently in a period of global warming. The questions important to scientists and policymakers are the extent, period, and cause of the warming.
Factors in Global Warming
One major factor in global warming is a solar heating process termed the greenhouse effect. The glass structure of a greenhouse allows most of the Sun's light inside, but stops a good share of the heat from escaping. This causes the temperature inside the greenhouse to be warmer than the outside air.
The Earth's atmosphere, along with certain greenhouse gases, acts much like a greenhouse, absorbing the infrared energy emitted by the Earth and warming the atmosphere. Without the presence of a greenhouse effect, the temperature of the Earth would be about −18°C (−0.4°F) instead of its present 15°C (59°F).
The most abundant greenhouse gas is water vapor, followed closely by carbon dioxide (CO2). There also are trace gases including methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), tropospheric ozone (O3), and human-made chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). These trace compounds, though in very low concentrations, are important because they absorb far more radiation, molecule per molecule, than does carbon dioxide. The estimated percent contributions of these greenhouse gases to increased greenhouse effect based on their present concentration in parts per billion by volume (ppbv) are as follows.
Gas
ppbv
%
CO2
353,000
60
CH4
1700
15
N2O
310
5
O3
10–50
8
CFC-11
0.28
4
CFC-12
0.48
8
Carbon Dioxide.
The carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere varies over time. Carbon dioxide is both natural and human-made, and has increased by 25 percent in the last 125 years. Human industrial activities, especially since the Industrial Revolution, have increased the CO2 content of the atmosphere. The increase is evident in the following figure, which shows atmospheric CO2 in parts per million (ppm) at three locations: South Pole (red circle); Siple, Antarctica (blue square); and Mauna Loa, Hawaii (green square).
The burning of fossil fuels, such as oil, coal and natural gases, are sources of energy that release carbon dioxide. Carbon dioxide uptake by plants during photosynthesis, and release by animals during respiration also influences the amount of atmospheric CO2.
There are more land plants in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere simply because there is more land north of the equator. Each year during Northern summers, plants absorb more carbon dioxide than is produced. When the growing season ends in the Northern Hemisphere, the carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere resumes the increase that results from the burning of fossil fuels. The seasonal influence of land plants is obvious in the following diagram, which shows atmospheric CO2 in parts per million (ppm) for Mauna Loa, Hawaii.
Because carbon dioxide is 30 times more soluble in water than are most common gases, the ocean contains most of the carbon dioxide in the ocean–atmosphere system. The phytoplankton living in the surface layers of the world's oceans convert CO2 into plant tissue, and in some cases use CO2 to build calcium carbonate (CaCO3) shells. As organisms die, their remains deposit on the ocean floor, along with other debris, burying calcium carbonate and organic carbon in sea-floor sediments. The ocean therefore performs as a giant sink for carbon dioxide, absorbing the gas and removing it from the atmosphere while depositing much if it as marine sediments.
Ocean Water and Temperature.
The Earth seems to have had a relatively constant temperature over long periods of geologic time. It is reradiating energy back to space at a rate approximately equal to the rate it receives energy. Most of the energy the Earth receives from the Sun lies within the ultraviolet and visible light spectra. The atmosphere is transparent to most of this radiation, but the oceans and the continents absorb about half of it.
Because of the high heat capacity of water, the oceans can absorb and hold much more solar energy than the air or the continents. When the oceans reradiate this stored energy back toward space, it is changed to infrared energy. The greenhouse gases in the atmosphere absorb some of this infrared radiation, which warms the atmosphere.
Paleoclimatology
To understand how the present-day global climate compares to past climates, scientists have had to look beyond the limited 140 years of weather data and examine the Earth's paleoclimate. Paleoclimate is a term used to describe the ancient climate long before instruments were developed. Instead of instrumental measurements of weather and climate, paleoclimatologists use natural environmental (proxy) records to estimate past climate conditions.
Research methods involve analyzing sediment core samples from the ocean floor and ice cores from the polar ice packs.* Some of the things being sought are fossil plankton, plant pollen, and preserved insects that are locked in ocean sediments, and chemical and isotopic data from sediments and polar ice. By dating the samples and identifying species and abundance, researchers can reconstruct the general climate of a region during its geologic past. For example, globally averaged temperatures and the atmospheric concentration of CO2 in parts per million (ppm) over the past 160,000 years have been estimated as follows.
The paleoclimatic record not only allows scientists to examine global temperature fluctuations over the last several centuries, but it also reveals past climate change even farther back in time. This perspective is an important tool used to help understand the possible causes of the present-day global warming.
The Effects of Global Warming
In 1988, the United Nations established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to evaluate information on climate change. In a 2001 report, the IPCC concluded that 1) global warming will occur if greenhouse gas concentrations increase, and 2) the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is increasing. It can thus be inferred that global warming is occurring.
Each year, human activities inject 6 billion tons (6 gigatons) of CO2 into the atmosphere. Three gigatons remain there, 1.5 gigatons go into the ocean, and the fate of the remaining 1.5 gigatons is unknown. Pre-industrial levels of carbon dioxide were about 280 parts per million by volume (ppmv), and current levels are about 370 ppmv. The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere today has not been exceeded in the last 420,000 years. By the end of the twenty-first century, some scientists expect to see carbon dioxide concentrations of anywhere from 490 to 1260 ppmv, which is 75 percent to 350 percent above the estimated pre-industrial concentration.
The projected temperature change of 1.5°C to 4°C (3°F to 7°F) by the year 2100 would be unprecedented in comparison with the best available records from the last several thousand years. This could cause higher sea-surface temperatures, intense tropical storms, longer and more intense heat waves, and melting of ice in glaciers and ice shelves.
Warming is expected to be more pronounced in high northern latitudes than in high southern latitudes. An increase in temperature accompanied by an increase in rainfall could decrease the density of the surface sea water that now sinks to the ocean floor forming the North Atlantic Deep Water. In that case, the thermohaline circulation of the ocean would be altered, and could further accelerate global warming. Computer models of climate
This artistic representation of global warming poses the questions "when?" and "what will happen to the world's oceans?" Melting of ice found in glaciers, ice shelves, icebergs, and sea ice is the most common expectation, but other possible effects are equally far-reaching. The butterfly represents the so-called "butterfly effect," the principle associated with mathematical chaos theory, which says that small changes in initial conditions can lead to very great ones in the final phenomena; hence, accurate prediction becomes impossible. change are undergoing continual refinement in an effort to decrease the uncertainty of these predictions.